Good Decision-making (including planning fallacy)

Introduction
Generally we are overly optimistic about how long something will take to complete, ie planning fallacy.
Reasons for this include:
- your focus on the most optimistic scenario
- you don't consider the worst-case scenario
- you continually underestimate how long it takes to complete past tasks
- you are overconfident in your ability to get things done

NB You do not make decisions on facts alone
"...The brain take shortcuts to discard information that doesn't fit its world and that it doesn't deem necessary..."
Michelle Gibbings, 2023q
'"...Daniel Kahneman.......explains how the automatic and instinctual part of the brain can lead to cognitive bias and that people can place too much confidence in their own judgement..."
Michelle Gibbings, 2023q

Linked with this are:
- sunk costs (owing to loss aversion, people don't walk away from something, even when the facts show that they should)
- anchoring (decisions are influenced by the earliest information received, ie
"...your brain can rely on first impressions or initial details when making decisions. Once this anchor has been set, you make decisions based on that anchor, often without considering more information or views..."
Michelle Gibbings, 2023q
(for more detail, see elsewhere in the Knowledge Base)

Overcoming these biases in decision-making
To help overcome these biases, it helps to have people around you who see the world differently and have a variety of backgrounds, experiences, perspectives, etc.
"...Good decision-making requires you to understand the range of perspectives and look at the issue from different angles so you can make a conscious decision. You want to see the alternate view and hear views and opinions you disagree with. Ask yourself, what perspective are they seeing that I am not? What is driving their thought processes?Why am I opposing? What assumptions underlie my thoughts? What don't I know that I need to?..."
Michelle Gibbings, 2023q

Encourage dissent, don't ignore it; it
"...will broaden your perspective and help you make a more realistic assessment of the challenges, outcomes, timeframes as you plan your work and then the work gets underway..."
Michelle Gibbings, 2023q

Furthermore, you need to check your process:
"...a transparent decision-making process makes it easier to know who you should involve in your process and why. Involving the right people at the right time helps to ensure you secure the diversity of ideas you need and that there is time to debate, listen and reflect. As part of the process, be clear on the options and likely consequences or outcomes. Choosing to do one thing will prevent you from doing something else. Understanding those trade-offs means you are making the decision with your eyes open. Remember: decisions are not just about what to do but what do not do. Be specific on what matters most to you, and that way, you can be more confident about what you say 'yes' to and what you say 'no' to.
Sound decisions can take time and involve thinking and effort. So challenge yourself. When it comes to planning decisions, are you putting enough effort into your decision-making processes to get your desired outcome? Are you involving the right people at the right time? Are you challenging yourself enough?..."
Michelle Gibbings, 2023q